Ginger Minoletti introduced our featured and much-awaited speaker was Dr. George Rutherford, head of the Department of Epidemiology at UCSF.  Dr. Rutherford has a public health focus as his position suggests, and has been a Fellow at CDC, in addition to considerable time spent in less-developed nations where epidemiology is an even greater concern than here.  Previous research and public health program efforts in the field have included such things as HIV, Ebola and the original SARS variant.  He and his department are truly on the cutting edge of Covid research and immunization.  

 

Dr. Rutherford began with an update and overview of statistics, at a level of analysis that was well beyond what we see in media.  the good news today is that we are "on the backside" of the third wave of Covid-19, with a significant drop in the number of U.S. and CA cases and deaths.  the great majority of CA cases are now in LA County and Southern CA generally, with the seven counties with highest incidence all in Southern CA. There is data indicating a significant decline in transmission.  In CA, the rate of positive testing for Covid is now 6.4%, with a case incidence of 41.2 cases per 100,000 population.  ICU use is falling.   The number of secondary cases is falling.  More people have acquired immunity from either infection or vaccination.  As we head into warmer weather and greater vaccination numbers, this should be cause for guarded optimism. There is also evidence that asymptomatic infection (passive carrier) is being reduced.